Durham Region Housing Market Update – September 2026

September Brings a Major Market Shift for Buyers and Sellers

September brought a significant change to the housing market across the six areas we follow: Pickering, Ajax, Whitby, Oshawa, Clarington and Uxbridge.

The traditional fall market brought a substantial increase in new listings, but buyer activity didn't keep pace.

Across these six areas, combined sales dropped -8.75% from August to September, while new listings jumped 28.80%. Active listings also increased, giving buyers more homes to choose from.

Perhaps the most significant development was that all six areas recorded buyer's-market conditions, based on their September Sales-to-New-Listings Ratios (SNLR).

For buyers, this means more selection, potentially less competition and greater negotiating opportunities.

For sellers, it means more competing properties and an increased need for realistic pricing and effective marketing.

And for homeowners planning to sell and buy another property, these changing conditions may present opportunities on both sides of the transaction.

Let's take a closer look at what happened in September and what it could mean for your plans.

Market Snapshot – September 2026

Durham Region Housing Market at a Glance

Source: Supplied September 2026 MLS statistics. Active listings are as of September 30, 2026. SNLR figures are calculated from sales divided by new listings.
 

August vs. September 2026: A Noticeable Shift

The increase in new listings was especially important. Buyers had more homes to compare, while sellers faced additional competition.

Although the fall market traditionally brings more properties onto the market, September's sales activity wasn't strong enough to keep pace with the new supply.

Understanding Market Balance

One useful way to understand whether conditions favour buyers or sellers is the Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio (SNLR).

The calculation is straightforward:

Homes Sold ÷ New Listings × 100

• Seller's Market – Above 60%: Buyer demand is strong relative to the number of new listings. Sellers generally have greater negotiating power.

• Balanced Market – 40% to 60%: Supply and demand are relatively even. At the midpoint of 50%, one home sells for every two new listings recorded during the period.

• Buyer's Market – Below 40%: New listings are entering the market faster than homes are selling, generally giving buyers more selection and negotiating leverage.

The SNLR is a useful indicator, but it doesn't tell the entire story. Conditions can vary considerably by neighbourhood, property type and price range.

September Market Balance: All Six Areas Favour Buyers

September's results show a clear change from August.

All six areas recorded SNLRs below 40%, with Ajax posting the highest ratio at 33.62% and Uxbridge the lowest at 27.69%.

That means no municipality in this report reached balanced-market territory during September.

For buyers, this generally creates a more comfortable environment for comparing properties and negotiating.

For sellers, it reinforces the importance of understanding competing listings and positioning their homes effectively from the beginning.

The 30-Second Summary

For Buyers

• More homes to choose from.

• Potentially less competition for individual properties.

• Greater opportunities to negotiate price, conditions and closing dates.

For Sellers

• More competing listings.

• Pricing and presentation are increasingly important.

• A well-planned marketing strategy can help your property stand out.

For Homeowners Selling and Buying

• Selling may require more patience and preparation.

• Buying the next home could offer greater selection and flexibility.

• The difference between your selling price and purchase price matters more than either price alone.

Municipality Highlights

Pickering – September 2026

• Sales: 92, down from 105 in August.

• Average Selling Price: $893,842, down from $935,490.

• New Listings: 277, up from 216.

• Active Listings: 411, up from 398.

• SNLR: 33.21% – Buyer's Market.

What This Means

Pickering experienced fewer sales and a noticeable increase in new listings. Buyers now have more properties to compare and potentially greater negotiating leverage. Sellers face additional competition, making accurate pricing and effective marketing especially important.

Ajax – September 2026

• Sales: 77, up from 72 in August.

• Average Selling Price: $828,835, down from $871,853.

• New Listings: 229, up from 172.

• Active Listings: 312, up from 285.

• SNLR: 33.62% – Buyer's Market.

What This Means
Ajax was one of only two areas where sales increased in September. However, new listings rose much faster, shifting market conditions in favour of buyers. For sellers, this means more competition, even though sales activity improved slightly.

Whitby – September 2026

• Sales: 96, down from 129 in August.
• Average Selling Price: $882,772, down from $905,123.
• New Listings: 318, up from 274.
• Active Listings: 428, up from 400.
• SNLR: 30.19% – Buyer's Market.

What This Means
Whitby experienced the largest percentage decline in sales among the six areas, with transactions falling approximately 25.58% from August. Combined with rising inventory, this creates more opportunities for buyers. Sellers need to pay particularly close attention to competing properties and recent sales when determining their asking price.

Oshawa – September 2026

• Sales: 125, down from 143 in August.

• Average Selling Price: $679,861, up from $652,775.

• New Listings: 448, up from 369.

• Active Listings: 660, up from 640.

• SNLR: 27.90% – Buyer's Market.

What This Means

Clarington – September 2026

• Sales: 113, up from 103 in August.
• Average Selling Price: $781,521, up from $733,960.
• New Listings: 362, up from 249.
• Active Listings: 457, up from 396.
• SNLR: 31.22% – Buyer's Market.

What This Means
Clarington recorded increases in both sales and average selling price. However, new listings jumped approximately 45.38%, far outpacing the improvement in sales. Buyers now have considerably more selection, while sellers face greater competition despite the stronger sales activity.

Uxbridge – September 2026

• Sales: 18, down from 19 in August.

• Average Selling Price: $1,391,022, up from $1,194,026.

• New Listings: 65, up from 37.

• Active Listings: 107, up from 103.

• SNLR: 27.69% – Buyer's Market.

What This Means

Uxbridge recorded the lowest SNLR of the six areas, with new listings increasing substantially while sales remained nearly unchanged. Although the average selling price rose sharply, the relatively small number of transactions means individual higher-priced sales can significantly influence the monthly average. Buyers have more selection, while sellers need to consider current competition carefully.

What These Numbers Tell Us Overall

September's biggest story wasn't simply that sales slowed. It was the substantial difference between the number of homes coming onto the market and the number being purchased.

Across the six areas:

• Sales declined 8.76%, from 571 in August to 521 in September.

• New listings increased 29.01%, from 1,317 to 1,699.

• Active listings increased 6.89%, from 2,222 to 2,375.

• All six areas recorded SNLRs below 40%.

Opportunities for Buyers

With more properties available and fewer sales relative to new listings, buyers generally have more time to compare homes, arrange inspections and negotiate favourable terms.

This doesn't mean every property will sell below asking price. Desirable homes that are priced correctly can still attract strong interest.

Opportunities for Sellers

A slower market doesn't mean homeowners should automatically postpone selling.

It does mean that pricing, preparation and marketing need to reflect today's conditions. Sellers who understand their competition and respond to buyer feedback can still achieve successful results.

A Potential Advantage for Homeowners Selling and Buying

For homeowners planning to move up, downsize or relocate, the current market may create opportunities on both sides of the transaction.

Selling may require more preparation and patience, but purchasing the next property could involve less competition and more negotiating flexibility.

For someone moving to a more expensive home, securing a favourable purchase price could help offset a lower selling price on their current property.

The key is having a coordinated plan for both transactions, including financing, closing dates and the difference between the selling and purchase prices.

Why Is the Market Moving This Way?

September's housing market activity doesn't exist in isolation. Several economic and international developments may be influencing how confident Canadians feel about making major financial decisions.

- Canada-U.S. trade tensions: American tariffs and Canadian counter-tariffs have created uncertainty for businesses, workers and consumers. Concerns about employment and future income can make households more cautious about taking on a mortgage.

- CUSMA uncertainty: Questions surrounding the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement and future trade relationships may influence business investment, hiring and consumer confidence.

- The Iran war and Middle East conflict: Continued instability has affected global energy supplies, contributing to higher oil and gasoline prices.

- Household living expenses: Higher gasoline prices, grocery bills and other everyday costs can affect how much money households feel comfortable committing to housing.

- Mortgage rates and borrowing costs: The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% in September, but uncertainty about inflation and future borrowing costs remains an important consideration.

- Employment and economic confidence: Buyers who are uncertain about their jobs or financial outlook may decide to wait, even when more homes become available.

The Bank of Canada has identified tariffs, trade uncertainty, higher energy costs and the Middle East conflict as important risks to Canada's economic outlook.

TRREB also reported that economic uncertainty, inflation and borrowing costs contributed to cautious GTA buyer activity in September.

While these factors help explain the broader environment, no single event can be identified as the cause of September's local housing market changes.

Looking Ahead: What Should Buyers and Sellers Watch in October?

October will help determine whether September's shift toward buyers continues.

Some important indicators to watch include:

• Whether sales recover after September's slowdown.

• Whether new listings continue to outpace sales.

• Whether active inventory continues increasing.

• Whether average selling prices stabilize or soften.

• The Bank of Canada's next scheduled interest-rate announcement on October 28.

• Developments involving trade, inflation, employment and consumer confidence.

If sales remain subdued while inventory increases, buyers could maintain a meaningful negotiating advantage.

If sales improve and new listings begin declining later in the fall, market conditions could gradually move closer to balance.

Thinking About Making a Move?

Whether you're buying your first home, moving up, downsizing or considering selling, today's market presents different opportunities and challenges depending on your circumstances.

The September statistics provide a useful overview, but they don't tell you exactly what's happening in your particular neighbourhood or price range.

That's why understanding the local market is so important.

For Buyers

• Get pre-approved before beginning your search.

• Compare asking prices with recent comparable sales.

• Take advantage of increased selection without rushing your decision.

• Consider negotiating price, conditions and closing dates when appropriate.

• Be prepared to act when the right property becomes available.

Ask me about my VIP Buyer Cash Savings Guarantee, designed to help you save when purchasing your next home.

For Sellers

• Price your home according to current market conditions.

• Study competing listings, not just recent sales.

• Prepare and present your property carefully.

• Use professional photography and effective marketing.

• Monitor showing activity and buyer feedback closely.

• Have a clear strategy for responding to changing conditions.

Ask me about my GUARANTEED , designed to provide qualifying sellers with additional peace of mind.

For details about either program, call 905-683-7800.

Final Thoughts

September brought a significant shift across the six areas we follow. Sales declined, new listings increased and all six recorded buyer's-market conditions.

For buyers, that means more choice and potential negotiating opportunities. For sellers, realistic pricing and effective marketing are more important than ever.

And for homeowners planning to sell and buy another property, today's market may present opportunities on both sides of the transaction.

If you're considering a move and would like to understand what these changes mean for your situation, call me at 905-683-7800.

I'll be watching October's numbers closely to see whether this shift continues.

 

Thank you for reading, and I look forward to bringing you next month's Durham Region Housing Market Update.

Read last month's market update here:

Thanks For Reading Today’s Blog!

Brian Kondo
Sales Representative / Team Leader
The Brian Kondo Real Estate Team
Re/Max Hallmark First Group Realty Ltd.
905-683-7800 office
905-426-7484 direct
brian@briankondo.com
www.BrianKondo.com
www.BrianKondoTeam.com


If you or anyone you know is considering making a move in the next little while, give me a call or pass on my number ... 905-683-7800 (Office) or 905-426-7484 (Direct).

If you would like to see any of my previous blog posts, please click here!